◆ THE SETUP · who's actually taking the risk
Nobody in this machine is betting on the price.
Except you.
◆ THE LIE
"His calls hit 1.3x, and 82% go green."
Every "max multiple" you have seen, pump's and everyone else's, is built on two things that never happen: that you bought at his price, and that you sold at the exact top. Here is what happens when a real person tries.
+215s
the "peak" is a spike this long after you're in, gone in seconds, not a level you can calmly sell into
under 40%
of the time a follower on a real take-profit rule finished green, even on the calls that had a window at all
22%
of the entire wave is one 1-SOL exit. at size you ARE the sell pressure. you crash the peak reaching for it
red
the median follower's actual realized result. the "82% win rate" is a number no human can execute
Pump.fun THE HOUSE
Takes a fee on every buy, every sell, every panic. Volume is the product, price is irrelevant. It gets paid when you buy, and it gets paid again when you sell. Moons or goes to zero, the house collects.
Risk: NONE
The caller THE SHILL
Staked and paid by pump for transactions, not for being right. Buys before the call, sells before you've refreshed. Paid if he sends it. Paid if he fuds it to zero. He's short the thing he told you to buy.
Risk: NONE
You THE MARK
You bought because he called it. You thought a call meant "up." It meant "volume." You're the only one in the whole machine who actually needs the price to rise.
Risk: EVERYTHING
They get paid on your volume. You bet on the price, the one number none of them are trying to move up.
You're not playing the game. You're what the game is played with.
Volume and fees are measured from real on-chain trades by tracked wallets, a floor on true volume, at pump's ~1% bonding-curve fee. The $2.9M in creator-reward checks is a 39% share of those fees, not a separate pool. A caller’s actual recurring followers, the wallets that buy 3 or more of his calls, lost −24% ($5M to $7M across 20,353 follower wallets), realized on-chain and re-marked for dead-bag liquidity (a caller wallet, pre-call snipers and bot flips all excluded). Pump payouts and off-SOL caller extraction are kept separate from the follower trade cohort.